August 1 to August 7

In my previous posts I looked at the pandemic experience in and around Warren County from the first cases up until the end of July. This post is my first weekly report since moving my work over to this blog space. As usual, my data comes directly from the Warren County Health Department reports and publically available data found at usafact.org. The focus of these weekly reports is, as the name implies, the last week’s worth of data. I’m also giving you the two weeks prior for context.

What’s Happening in Warren County

This week saw a continued steady trickle of cases. No single day was outrageous but we also saw no days with zero new cases. In COVID related news, this week the Monmouth-Roseville School District changed course and has declared that the fall semester will be carried out remotely. Meanwhile, Monmouth College still plans to welcome 800 to 900 students to campus next week and United School district, the other public school district serving Warren County, plans to run a hybrid schedule.

Test Results and Positive Test Rating

Now for the graphics. First the daily test results and positive test rate. The later graphic also gives you the recovery region seven day average for context. Remember that the state is watching for 7 increases in a 10 day period or three days in a row above 8%. Last week Warren County was above the regional average. This week we’ve dropped back down into the average range.

Demographics

The number of new cases this past week was not exceptional. The real news is in the demographics of the infected. This week saw our first cases of people in the 80-100 age range. Below you can see the demographic break down of the past two weeks along side the demographics of this week.

What’s Happening in the Region

The number of new cases per day continues to rise in the region. As expected, most new cases are in the more urban counties. Below you can see the regional total and a map showing the total cases from just the past three weeks.

County Level Picture

To see what the day to day reports were like you can play with the animation below. This graphic is for actual number of new cases per day.

Comparing counties

To compare counties on an even basis we normalize case counts to to cases per 100,000. The map looks a bit different now. Remember that a seven day average of 10 or more indicates risk of accelerated spreading. So, a three week total in the 200s is cause of concern. As you can see on the map below, much of the region falls into this category.

Finally, to get a general sense for trends in the counties we’ll turn to the seven day average of new cases per 100,000 people.